For years, the question has haunted boardrooms from New York to Berlin: where is the next China? As the world’s second-largest economy stumbled through a post-COVID slump, with sluggish consumption and a property market crash, foreign companies began rethinking their bets. But McKinsey’s Joe Ngai and Nick Leung have a blunt answer: there is no next China. The next China is still China.
The argument that defies the de-risking narrative
Joe Ngai, McKinsey’s Greater China chair, first tested this thesis on social media when China’s economy was at its lowest point. “You heard all these things. We’re trying to diversify away from China. We’re trying to de-risk from China,” Ngai told Fortune in McKinsey’s Hong Kong office. “You can’t find another China. There’s no other China out there now.” The observation has now become a full-length book, co-authored with McKinsey senior partner Nick Leung.
Why China’s scale remains unmatched
The book’s central claim rests on hard numbers. China accounts for 30% of global manufacturing and 18% of global GDP, surpassing the European Union and trailing only the United States. No single country—not India, Vietnam, Mexico, or Indonesia—comes close to matching that scale. For global companies, leaving China means leaving behind a market that is not just large but uniquely integrated into global supply chains.
The post-COVID reality check for foreign investors
The timing of the book is deliberate. After COVID lockdowns, a property crisis, and rising geopolitical tensions, many multinationals accelerated “China plus one” strategies. Yet Ngai and Leung argue that diversification is not the same as replacement. While companies can shift some production, they cannot replicate China’s ecosystem of suppliers, infrastructure, and consumer demand. The book is both a defense of China’s economic relevance and a practical guide for companies that choose to stay.
Who is affected by this debate
The stakes are enormous for global CEOs, supply chain managers, investors, and policymakers. For Indian readers, the debate is particularly relevant as India positions itself as an alternative manufacturing hub. The book implicitly challenges that narrative, arguing that no single country—including India—can absorb the scale of manufacturing and consumption that China offers. For Indian businesses eyeing China as a market or competitor, the book offers a strategic lens.
What McKinsey’s leaders are saying
Ngai and Leung have been promoting the book through interviews and events, including a launch at the Hang Seng University of Hong Kong. Their message is consistent: China is not a market to abandon but one to navigate with a new playbook. “The next China is still China” is not a slogan of blind optimism—it is a data-driven argument about economic gravity.
What the book actually offers
Titled “The Next China Is Still China: An Insider’s Playbook for Winning in the New Era,” the book goes beyond the headline thesis. It provides a framework for companies to understand China’s evolving regulatory environment, shifting consumer preferences, and the rise of domestic competitors. It is aimed at executives who need to make real decisions about investment, supply chains, and market entry.
Confirmed facts vs what remains unclear
Confirmed: China accounts for 30% of global manufacturing and 18% of global GDP. Confirmed: Ngai and Leung have published the book and are actively promoting it. Confirmed: The book argues that no other country can replace China. Unclear: Whether the book’s thesis will hold if geopolitical tensions escalate further or if China’s economic slowdown deepens. The book’s practical recommendations are based on current conditions, not future guarantees.
Why McKinsey’s voice carries weight
McKinsey is one of the most influential consulting firms globally, with deep ties to both Chinese and multinational corporations. Joe Ngai has led McKinsey’s Greater China practice for years, giving him firsthand insight into how global companies operate in China. Nick Leung brings a strategic perspective from the firm’s senior leadership. Their book is not an academic exercise—it is a strategic document for the world’s largest companies.
Risks and balanced view
Critics may argue that the book underestimates the risks of operating in China: regulatory unpredictability, geopolitical friction, and the rise of domestic competitors that make life harder for foreign firms. Others point to the ongoing property crisis and demographic challenges as long-term drags. The book acknowledges these challenges but argues that the opportunity still outweighs the risk. The debate is far from settled.
The wider trend: global supply chain rethinking
The book arrives amid a global rethinking of supply chains. The pandemic, the Ukraine war, and US-China trade tensions have all pushed companies to diversify. Yet the data shows that China’s share of global manufacturing has remained remarkably stable. The “next China” conversation is itself a sign of how central China remains to global business—no one is asking where the next US or next Germany is.
What global business leaders should do now
For CEOs and supply chain executives, the book offers a clear recommendation: do not exit China, but adapt. Understand the new regulatory landscape, invest in local innovation, and build relationships with Chinese partners. For investors, the message is to look beyond the headlines of economic slowdown and focus on long-term structural advantages. For Indian readers, the book is a reminder that China’s economic weight is not easily replicated.
What could happen next
The book’s influence will depend on how China’s economy performs in the coming years. If growth stabilizes and foreign investment returns, the thesis will be validated. If the slowdown deepens or geopolitical tensions escalate, the argument may face stronger headwinds. Either way, the book has already shifted the conversation—forcing global business to confront the reality that there is no easy replacement for China.
Our Take
“The next China is still China” is a provocative and data-backed argument that challenges the prevailing narrative of de-risking. It is not a defense of China’s political system or a dismissal of its problems—it is a cold-eyed assessment of economic reality. For global business, the book is a necessary corrective to the idea that China can be easily replaced. Whether companies agree or disagree, they cannot afford to ignore the argument.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does “the next China is still China” mean?
It means that no other country can replace China as a global manufacturing hub and consumer market. Despite efforts to diversify, China’s scale—30% of global manufacturing and 18% of global GDP—remains unmatched.
Who wrote the book and why does it matter?
The book was written by Joe Ngai, McKinsey’s Greater China chair, and Nick Leung, a McKinsey senior partner. It matters because it comes from one of the world’s most influential consulting firms and directly challenges the de-risking narrative.
Is the book optimistic about China’s economy?
The book is not blindly optimistic. It acknowledges China’s challenges—property crisis, demographic issues, regulatory shifts—but argues that the opportunity still outweighs the risks for global companies.
What should global companies do according to the book?
The book advises companies to adapt rather than exit: understand new regulations, invest in local innovation, and build partnerships. It offers a strategic playbook for navigating China’s evolving market.
