Iran war ke chalte Strait of Hormuz par lage chokehold ki wajah se duniya bhar mein energy crisis hai. America mein bhi petrol ke rates aasmaan chhoo rahe hain — average $4.45 per gallon se bhi upar, kuch jagahon mein to $6 tak pahunch gaye hain. March mein core inflation mein 0.7% ka jump aaya, jo teen saalon mein sabse bada hai. Lekin ek top economist ka kehna hai ki America lucky hai ki woh ab manufacturing powerhouse nahi raha.
America Ki Economy Ko Kaun Bacha Raha Hai? Service Sector
Fortune ki report ke mutabiq, Cornell University ke senior professor of trade policy and economics Eswar Prasad ka kehna hai ki Americans ko apni manufacturing influence kho dene ke liye shukar karna chahiye. Unke mutabiq, America ka service-oriented economy ki taraf shift hona hi woh major reason hai ki woh aaj se aadhi sadi pehle ke mukable mein oil par kam dependent hai.
Seedha baat karein toh, jab America manufacturing powerhouse tha, tab uski economy oil par bahut zyada depend karti thi. Factories, plants, aur heavy machinery sabko chlane ke liye bada oil chahiye hota tha. Lekin ab jab economy services par shift ho gayi hai — jaise IT, finance, healthcare, aur dusre service sectors — toh oil ki demand bhi relatively kam ho gayi hai.
Oil Shock Se Bachne Ka Formula: Kam Manufacturing, Kam Oil Dependency
Prasad ka logic simple hai. Iran war ki wajah se jo oil shock aaya hai, woh manufacturing-heavy economies ke liye zyada dangerous hota. Lekin America ki economy ab service-based hai, isliye oil price spike ka asar limited hai. Iska matlab yeh nahi ki Americans ko petrol ke badhte daam se koi farak nahi pad raha — lekin overall economy par jo widespread damage ho sakta tha, woh nahi ho raha.
Hamari nazar mein, yeh ek interesting perspective hai. Aksar hum sunte hain ki manufacturing weak hona ek economy ke liye bura hota hai. Lekin is crisis mein, wahi weakness ek strength ban gayi hai. Iska matlab yeh nahi ki manufacturing ko completely ignore karna chahiye — lekin diversification ka fayda ab dikh raha hai.
Hamaari Baat: Kya Service Economy Hi Future Hai?
Eswar Prasad ka point bahut relevant hai. Iran war aur oil crisis ne ek naya lesson diya hai — ki economy jitni diversified hogi, external shocks se utni hi safe hogi. America ka manufacturing se service sector mein shift hona ek long-term trend tha, aur ab woh trend crisis ke time mein kaam aa raha hai.
Lekin readers ko yeh bhi samajhna chahiye ki iska matlab yeh nahi ki manufacturing completely useless hai. Balance important hai. America ke paas ab bhi strong service sector hai, aur isliye woh oil shock ko better handle kar pa raha hai. Agar aaj bhi America manufacturing-heavy hota, toh situation aur bhi serious hoti.
